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Prediction for CME (2021-10-06T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-06T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17902/-1
CME Note: This CME is likely associated with an eruption visible on the Earth-facing disk from an unnumbered active region near S20W10 as seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2021-10-06T15:49Z. The eruption signature exhibits a notable dimming and some subsequent field line movement.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-11T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17904/1
Model Inputs:
2021-10-06T17:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2021-10-07T14:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-10-11T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-10-11T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-10-07T14:07Z

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