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Prediction for CME (2021-10-06T17:38:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2021-10-06T17:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17902/-1 CME Note: This CME is likely associated with an eruption visible on the Earth-facing disk from an unnumbered active region near S20W10 as seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2021-10-06T15:49Z. The eruption signature exhibits a notable dimming and some subsequent field line movement. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-11T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17904/1 Model Inputs: 2021-10-06T17:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=300.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2021-10-07T14:08Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-10-11T06:00Z (+- 7 hours) Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-10-11T12:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211007_140800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 87.88 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-10-07T14:07Z |
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